Dallas
at New Jersey

I have to say, this isn’t the most inspiring night of
basketball that we’ve seen, the schedule goes 12-deep, but there aren’t a lot of
winners to be found. So instead of spending all night in front of the tube,
tonight might be a good time to pass on the pro hoops, and spend some quality
time with the family.

Then, after a few minutes and when you’re completely sick of
them, head over to Busted
Coverage (mildly NSFW, but if you’re up working on a Friday night, I’m sure
there isn’t much that might not be safe for work), and give ol’ BDL a chance in their blogger bracket. We’re ranked
numero two-o, near the bottom of the page. Voting ends tonight, so [insert Chicago politician joke
here].

After that, maybe take a look at the Nets/Mavs pairing. I’m
not paying attention to this game because of the Devin Harris/Jason Kidd
subplot, but because these are two entertaining teams that should be able to
put a good ballgame together.

Dallas
is decidedly above-average in all areas, but they’ll run more than you’d expect,
as Rick Carlisle continues to prove that you can teach an old dog new spots.

And the Nets? Well, you could score 30 on them, but they can
score 110 on you. Even when walking the ball up court. Harris is brilliant,
Vince Carter is playing All-Star ball, Lawrence Frank is ignoring Eduardo
Najera, and cap space is on its way. Love that team.

Enjoy the weekend, stay safe, and thanks for continuing to
make Skeets and I the luckiest keyboard tappers in the western world.

Dallas Mavericks:
14-10, 92.6 possessions per game, 107.1 points scored per 100 possessions (15^th),
104.4 points allowed per 100 possessions (10^th). Bye Bye Love.

New Jersey Nets:
12-12, 91.4 possessions per game (17^th), 108.7 points scored per 100
possessions (8^th), 111.6 points allowed per 100 possessions (27^th).
Good Times Roll.

Read full article…

We asked, you answered.

(Well, actually, it was more like a TBJ fan asked, Tas and I hummed and hawed over it a little bit, we asked you, you directed us towards this link, Kevin Pelton answered. Close enough.)

BDL reader "Bear Killer" e-mails in response to Friday morning’s question about whether firing a coach midseason tends to help or hurt a team’s winning percentage:

"Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus crunched some numbers on team performance before and after axing a coach. I won’t attempt to give a complete synopsis — you can check out the article here — but it really comes down to this: teams with a previous history of making the playoffs, on average, improve after a coaching change by a lot. Teams that had playoff aspirations to begin the season don’t seem to reap much benefit from a change. Teams that really stunk do improve some after a coaching change, but not as much as the playoff teams."

Here’s how Pelton’s numbers shake out:

Type — Old% — New%  — Diff
Playoff — .399 — .487 — +.088
Aspiring — .406 — .402  — -.004
Non-Playoff — .230 — .255 — +.025

Using those digits, Commenter MThiell nicely sums up this season’s wild coaching carousel: "Seems that coaching changes are most effective (that is, provide the greatest improvement in winning %) when they take place on teams that made the playoffs the previous season, and when they take place fairly early in the season (first 25 games or so). Washington, Toronto and Philly all fit that mold, so we’ll see how true this holds."

Indeed we will.

Many thanks to everyone who took the time to e-mail in that BP link. You have no idea how refreshing it is to hear that some of you actually listen to what we’re saying. Seriously. I’m pretty sure my girlfriend just tunes in to see how stupid my hair looks.

Read full article…

Though the explosion went down long after most of America’s
bedtime, Brandon Roy’s 52 points and an entertaining Trail Blazer win over the
Suns on Thursday night will likely vault Portland back into the "can they?"
group of also-rans trying to do damage to the Lakers’ chances.

I’m not so sure that this team is there yet, though it
easily has enough potential and more than enough room to grow into the role of
Conference champs, even this year.

The biggest change has to come on an end that most observers
aren’t expecting. In fact, if you get the announcing crew for the visiting team
on any League Pass
telecast of the Trail Blazers, they’re likely to classify Portland as a darn good defensive team.

That makes sense, right? A hard-nosed former player who was
known for his sterling defense runs the show as coach. Guys like Greg Oden and
Joel Przybilla can’t be anything but helpful defenders in the lane, and guards
like Brandon Roy and Steve Blake are known for being "blue-collar workers,"
which usually lends itself to a defensive tone. Throw in a rookie forward who
only starts because of his defense, and you would seem to have all the makings
for a top defensive outfit.

Well, they do have all the makings for it. That much is
correct. But the defense, thus far, has been horrible-to-well below average.
This might be news to those who are looking at the 95.4 points per game Portland gives (10^th
in the NBA), but the team’s slow pace 86.4 possessions per game (slowest in the
NBA) obscures everything.

It doesn’t mean that the first glances and obvious
attributes have to be wrong, though. Nicolas Batum is a very good defender, but
he fouls quite a bit, and the points Portland
allows when he’s on the floor (about 110 per 100 possessions, pretty lousy) are
as bad as Travis Outlaw’s mark. And Brandon Roy’s, for that matter.

There aren’t many obvious answers, though, beyond just
getting these guys just to play better defense. The Blazers are slightly better
at playing D with Rudy Fernandez on the floor, but one of the team’s worst
attributes is causing turnovers, and Rudy’s propensity for grabbing steals
isn’t that hot. Steve Blake’s defense is pretty awful, but what are the Blazers
going to do, throw a converted shooting guard rookie point man out there
instead?

Well, yeah. Jerryd Bayless has been pretty OK (slight
praise, bad English) defensively this year, but he’s been a horror show on the
other end, and Blake is having a career-year offensively. Blake’s a big reason Portland is ranked 2^nd
in offensive efficiency, and the Blazers need to take advantage of his prime.
So Bayless would help the defense, just not the overall shot at winning.

It’s a worrying situation. As fun as Thursday’s win was, the
Blazers gave up 132.2 points per 100 possessions in the win. That’s as bad as
any team in the NBA this year, save for last Suns, who gave up a few more. For
comparison’s sake, the Washington Wizards are last in the NBA in giving up
about 113 points per 100 possessions, and the Blazers are 23^rd while
giving up 109.2.

So the answer, for now, is just to chip away at that "23,"
and hope to sustain the offense. It can happen. Portland spent the first month of the season
languishing in the low 20s defensively, so the squad has improved already.

This is a terrific team, led by a 24 year old in Brandon Roy
who is already giving you a 25 PER.
That’s good stuff. Someone like Mitch Richmond or Reggie Miller never came
close to that their careers, despite all the "he’s so underrated" nonsense about Richmond, and the fact that Reg
was on national TV about a trillion times in his career. Roy
is playing spectacular basketball, though his stats don’t bowl you over due to Portland’s super-slow
pace.

Get giddy about the Blazers, but understand that this team
still has a lot of work to do. And then get giddy again knowing that this team
has the players and talent to work on what needs to be done.

Read full article…

A look around the league and the web that covers it. It’s also important to note that the rotation order and starting nods aren’t always listed in order of importance. That’s for you, dear reader, to figure out.

C: Dave D, Star-Ledger. Looks like the Nets will pass on matching OKC’s bid for Nenad Krstic’s services.
PF: Globe and Mail. Kris Humphries thinks he could have been a pro swimmer if he had stuck with it.
SF: The Knicks Blog. Whattyathink: When the Knicks are good, is New York City a hoops town?
SG: 3 Shades Of Blue. Holy crap! They sold Darko’s ‘Hulk’ jersey for almost a grand.
PG: Hooped Up. Speaking of jerseys, anyone care to buy a $114,000 Jordan throwback?
6th: Dallas Morning News. In the new year, Dick Vitale and Dan Shulman will call a Heat-Nuggets game.
7th: Blazers’s Edge. Highlights from last night’s epic Suns-Blazers shootout.
8th: Deadspin. Is Michael Jordan getting married again? And if so, will Oak be his best man?
9th: The Sporting Blog. "D. Wade is different than I am, a different personality." Kobe talks, we listen.
10th: Basketbawful. "They’ve started to call Corey Maggette ‘Bad Porn’ at various Warriors boards. Their justification? ‘Sure, there’s penetration and scoring, but are you really happy with what you’re seeing?’"

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Rasheed Wallace and the Pistons helped spread some holiday cheer on Thursday during the National Basketball Players Association’s "Miracle in Motown" event. The players were joined by dedicated Palace volunteers in an effort to help feed some 5,000 Detroit families. ‘Tis the season … Best caption/Sheed signature wins a hat. Rock on.

After the jump, CP3 tries to steal Duncan’s face.

Winner, T Darkstar:
If the ref’s didn’t notice my jumpball trick, I doubt they’ll notice my use of chloroform on Tim Duncan.

Runner-up, Red Dawn:
Sadly, Timmy’s "keep away" strategy couldn’t beat Chris’ purple-nurple / "I’m not touching you" combo.

Read full article…